Was the forecast right for New York on Fri Oct 23?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Fri Oct 23 high anywhere from 55° to 70°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 59°. The day verified at 59° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-08 | — | 59° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 59–66° |
| 14d · 2026-10-09 | 69° | 55° | 70° | — | 68° | — | — | 55–70° |
| 13d · 2026-10-10 | 62° | 71° | 68° | — | 66° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 12d · 2026-10-11 | 61° | 58° | 65° | — | 64° | — | — | 58–65° |
| 11d · 2026-10-12 | — | 57° | 62° | — | 68° | — | — | 57–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-13 | 63° | 71° | 67° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–71° |
| 9d · 2026-10-14 | 70° | 65° | 60° | 64° | 70° | — | — | 60–70° |
| 8d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 66° | 63° | 66° | 64° | — | — | 63–66° |
| 7d · 2026-10-16 | 55° | 62° | 58° | 50° | 65° | — | — | 50–65° |
| 6d · 2026-10-17 | 57° | 60° | 56° | 56° | 62° | 57° | 56° | 56–62° |
| 5d · 2026-10-18 | 58° | 59° | 53° | 57° | 61° | 57° | 60° | 53–61° |
| 4d · 2026-10-19 | 58° | 58° | 54° | 56° | 60° | 57° | 55° | 54–60° |
| 3d · 2026-10-20 | 58° | 58° | 53° | 58° | 60° | 57° | 56° | 53–60° |
| 2d · 2026-10-21 | 59° | 59° | 56° | 59° | 60° | 58° | 57° | 56–60° |
| 1d · 2026-10-22 | 59° | 59° | 56° | 60° | 60° | 59° | 57° | 56–60° |
| actual | 59° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.