Was the forecast right for New York on Sat Aug 29?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
9 days out, 4 models put New York's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 75° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 76° against the NYC observations — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. GFS ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-20 | 75° | 82° | 78° | — | 84° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 8d · 2026-08-21 | 75° | 83° | 81° | 79° | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-22 | 78° | 76° | 81° | 84° | 92° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-23 | 75° | 81° | 83° | 85° | 89° | 80° | 82° | 75–89° |
| 5d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 77° | 81° | 77° | 84° | 78° | 78° | 77–84° |
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 78° | 79° | 78° | 79° | 85° | 78° | 80° | 78–85° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 80° | 79° | 82° | 80° | 86° | 83° | 86° | 79–86° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 77° | 77° | 78° | 78° | 83° | 78° | 83° | 77–83° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 77° | 79° | 77° | 83° | 84° | 79° | 80° | 77–84° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.