Was the forecast right for New York on Tue Aug 11?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 84° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 88° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.25 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-27 | — | 95° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 87–95° |
| 14d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 86° | 88° | — | 90° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 13d · 2026-07-29 | 83° | 83° | 90° | — | 81° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 12d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 72° | 87° | — | 81° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 11d · 2026-07-31 | 85° | 92° | 84° | — | 92° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 77° | 84° | — | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 87° | 94° | 81° | 94° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 8d · 2026-08-03 | 84° | 87° | 90° | 88° | 93° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 7d · 2026-08-04 | 86° | 85° | 91° | 86° | 88° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 6d · 2026-08-05 | 86° | 86° | 96° | 90° | 91° | 92° | 96° | 86–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-06 | 85° | 87° | 90° | 86° | 88° | 93° | 89° | 85–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-07 | 88° | 90° | 84° | 86° | 93° | 90° | 86° | 84–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-08 | 88° | 91° | 81° | 83° | 93° | 91° | 80° | 80–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-09 | 88° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 90° | 91° | 88° | 87–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-10 | 87° | 88° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 87–88° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.