Was the forecast right for New York on Mon Oct 5?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 62° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 68° against the NYC observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 73° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–73° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 64° | 62° | 74° | — | 74° | — | — | 62–74° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 75° | 64° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 71° | 67° | 68° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–71° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 66° | 76° | 63° | — | 78° | — | — | 63–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 65° | 64° | 61° | — | 80° | — | — | 61–80° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 66° | 70° | 59° | 64° | 72° | — | — | 59–72° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 69° | 66° | 64° | 63° | 59° | — | — | 59–69° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 65° | 67° | 66° | 63° | 67° | — | — | 63–67° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 69° | 64° | 68° | 64° | 68° | 64° | 63° | 63–69° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 70° | 68° | 71° | 61° | 73° | 67° | 69° | 61–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 68° | 69° | 67° | 67° | 74° | 67° | 67° | 67–74° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 69° | 70° | 70° | 71° | 73° | 71° | 68° | 68–73° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 69° | 68° | 68° | 70° | 68° | 69° | 67° | 67–70° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 70° | 69° | 68° | 70° | 70° | 70° | 67° | 67–70° |
| actual | 68° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.