Was the forecast right for New York on Fri Sep 11?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 73° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 79° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-27 | — | 75° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 14d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 73° | 90° | — | 78° | — | — | 73–90° |
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 84° | 85° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 75° | 86° | 72° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 84° | 85° | 82° | — | 81° | — | — | 81–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 72° | 74° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–80° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 80° | 74° | 66° | 82° | 79° | — | — | 66–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 78° | 72° | 89° | 74° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 78° | 79° | 84° | 82° | 72° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 74° | 80° | 80° | 74° | 87° | 76° | 78° | 74–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 76° | 79° | 79° | 77° | 79° | 78° | 80° | 76–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 78° | 78° | 77° | 79° | 82° | 76° | 79° | 76–82° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 80° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 81° | 78° | 79° | 78–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 79° | 81° | 80° | 79° | 82° | 79° | 81° | 79–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 84° | 81° | 81° | 80–84° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.