Was the forecast right for New York on Wed Sep 9?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 76° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 82° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 7° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 77° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 77–83° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 77° | 77° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–77° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 78° | 80° | 95° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–95° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 78° | 92° | 87° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 79° | 78° | 77° | — | 99° | — | — | 77–99° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 79° | 74° | 77° | — | 79° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 78° | 77° | 86° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 82° | 86° | 85° | 80° | 77° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 83° | 89° | 89° | 74° | 94° | — | — | 74–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 84° | 75° | 84° | 74° | 87° | — | 74–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 81° | 82° | 87° | 83° | 90° | 87° | 87° | 81–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 82° | 80° | 87° | 86° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 80–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 82° | 81° | 88° | 85° | 85° | 84° | 86° | 81–88° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 82° | 82° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 81° | 84° | 81–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 82° | 88° | 87° | 89° | 80° | 86° | 80–89° |
| 0d · 2026-09-09 | 84° | 84° | 85° | 85° | 89° | 82° | 86° | 82–89° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.