Was the forecast right for New York on Wed Sep 9?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 79° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 82° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.3°. GFS ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 79° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 80° | 90° | 88° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 80° | 96° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–96° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 76° | 78° | 99° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–99° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 77° | 80° | 80° | — | 86° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 75° | 89° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 81° | 82° | 71° | 83° | 80° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 82° | 86° | 85° | 80° | 77° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 88° | 70° | 83° | 84° | — | — | 70–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 74° | 84° | 75° | 84° | 74° | 87° | — | 74–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 81° | 83° | 86° | 84° | 90° | 89° | 81° | 81–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 81° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 86° | 81–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 82° | 82° | 87° | 85° | 89° | 86° | 86° | 82–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 83° | 83° | 88° | 86° | 89° | 81° | 86° | 81–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 83° | 83° | 87° | 87° | 89° | 83° | 86° | 83–89° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.