Was the forecast right for New York on Wed Sep 30?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Wed Sep 30 high anywhere from 61° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 74° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-15 | — | 65° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 65–87° |
| 14d · 2026-09-16 | 73° | 61° | 62° | — | 82° | — | — | 61–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-17 | 66° | 78° | 75° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–78° |
| 12d · 2026-09-18 | 74° | 70° | 78° | — | 80° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 11d · 2026-09-19 | 69° | 71° | 65° | — | 66° | — | — | 65–71° |
| 10d · 2026-09-20 | 74° | 74° | 70° | — | 82° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 9d · 2026-09-21 | 75° | 78° | 64° | 78° | 77° | — | — | 64–78° |
| 8d · 2026-09-22 | 76° | 76° | 73° | 82° | 80° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-23 | 72° | 76° | 74° | 80° | 76° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-24 | 75° | 74° | 77° | 77° | 79° | 76° | 73° | 73–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-25 | 75° | 76° | 75° | 74° | 79° | 73° | 72° | 72–79° |
| 4d · 2026-09-26 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 73° | 72° | 72–78° |
| 3d · 2026-09-27 | 73° | 75° | 73° | 73° | 78° | 74° | 72° | 72–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-28 | 73° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 76° | 74° | 73–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-29 | 72° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 75° | 72–78° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.