Was the forecast right for New York on Wed Sep 2?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 74° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 71° against the NYC observations, with 0.27 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-20 | 76° | 74° | 82° | — | 82° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 12d · 2026-08-21 | 81° | 78° | 79° | — | 85° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 81° | 74° | 78° | — | 85° | — | — | 74–85° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 86° | 70° | 86° | — | 77° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 83° | 83° | 76° | 84° | 75° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 83° | 82° | 96° | 92° | 88° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 88° | 92° | 85° | 89° | 68° | — | — | 68–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 83° | 92° | 83° | 66° | 74° | 95° | 87° | 66–95° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 80° | 88° | 89° | 73° | 78° | 77° | 87° | 73–89° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 73° | 75° | 81° | 72° | 78° | 85° | 85° | 72–85° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 73° | 73° | 77° | 78° | 75° | 79° | 78° | 73–79° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 72° | 74° | 78° | 74° | 79° | 75° | 79° | 72–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 71° | 74° | 76° | 76° | 77° | 75° | 79° | 71–79° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.