Was the forecast right for New York on Wed Sep 2?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
12 days out, 4 models put New York's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 80° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 71° against the NYC observations, with 0.27 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. UKMO ran 8° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-21 | 81° | 84° | 80° | — | 93° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 11d · 2026-08-22 | 76° | 72° | 79° | — | 82° | — | — | 72–82° |
| 10d · 2026-08-23 | 85° | 81° | 78° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–85° |
| 9d · 2026-08-24 | 88° | 71° | 76° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 81° | 87° | 94° | 83° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 89° | 92° | 96° | 90° | 99° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 91° | 88° | 92° | 74° | 88° | — | 74–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 84° | 87° | 92° | 76° | 82° | 84° | 88° | 76–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 78° | 86° | 83° | 76° | 74° | 80° | 87° | 74–87° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 73° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 79° | 78° | 82° | 73–82° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 72° | 72° | 80° | 72° | 76° | 75° | 78° | 72–80° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 71° | 74° | 76° | 76° | 77° | 75° | 79° | 71–79° |
| 0d · 2026-09-02 | 72° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 74° | 79° | 72–79° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.