Was the forecast right for New York on Thu Oct 1?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 68° to 72°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 76° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 67° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 67–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 68° | 72° | 68° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–72° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 72° | 73° | 66° | — | 74° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 71° | 59° | 74° | — | 72° | — | — | 59–74° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 69° | 79° | 65° | — | 86° | — | — | 65–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 75° | 77° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 72–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 78° | 81° | 77° | 83° | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 74° | 73° | 74° | 85° | 74° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 78° | 75° | 80° | 81° | 80° | — | — | 75–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 82° | 77° | 77° | 79° | 78° | 76° | 73° | 73–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 80° | 81° | 78° | 77° | 83° | 78° | 81° | 77–83° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 80° | 80° | 78° | 79° | 85° | 74° | 80° | 74–85° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 79° | 80° | 78° | 76° | 81° | 73° | 80° | 73–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 78° | 77° | 74° | 77° | 71° | 70° | 80° | 70–80° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 77° | 77° | 74° | 81° | 77° | 74° | 78° | 74–81° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.