Was the forecast right for New York on Wed Oct 21?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Wed Oct 21 high anywhere from 57° to 65°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 62°. The day verified at 62° against the NYC observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-06 | — | 60° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 60–68° |
| 14d · 2026-10-07 | 65° | 63° | 57° | — | 62° | — | — | 57–65° |
| 13d · 2026-10-08 | 63° | 71° | 60° | — | 68° | — | — | 60–71° |
| 12d · 2026-10-09 | 67° | 68° | 68° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–68° |
| 11d · 2026-10-10 | 62° | 68° | 67° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-11 | 57° | 64° | 62° | — | 69° | — | — | 57–69° |
| 9d · 2026-10-12 | — | 60° | 61° | 64° | 64° | — | — | 60–64° |
| 8d · 2026-10-13 | 68° | 63° | 66° | 66° | 72° | — | — | 63–72° |
| 7d · 2026-10-14 | 63° | 66° | 61° | 64° | 66° | — | — | 61–66° |
| 6d · 2026-10-15 | 63° | 64° | 64° | 62° | 61° | 66° | 66° | 61–66° |
| 5d · 2026-10-16 | 64° | 59° | 62° | 57° | 61° | 63° | 64° | 57–64° |
| 4d · 2026-10-17 | 60° | 57° | 60° | 62° | 62° | 61° | 60° | 57–62° |
| 3d · 2026-10-18 | 59° | 61° | 59° | 60° | 62° | 62° | 60° | 59–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-19 | 62° | 61° | 59° | 62° | 62° | 62° | 59° | 59–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-20 | 62° | 61° | 59° | 63° | 63° | 63° | 59° | 59–63° |
| actual | 62° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.