Was the forecast right for New York on Fri Sep 25?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 70° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 69° against the NYC observations, with 0.08 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 58° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 58–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 78° | 70° | 73° | — | 71° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 70° | 77° | 67° | — | 75° | — | — | 67–77° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 81° | 78° | 66° | — | 77° | — | — | 66–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 73° | 78° | 69° | — | 72° | — | — | 69–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 72° | 75° | 68° | — | 80° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 64° | 73° | 64° | 69° | 80° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 68° | 65° | 61° | 64° | 62° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 70° | 56° | 64° | 55° | 60° | — | — | 55–70° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 71° | 71° | 61° | 66° | 70° | 73° | 66° | 61–73° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 69° | 69° | 56° | 66° | 72° | 59° | 70° | 56–72° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 71° | 71° | 71° | 65° | 74° | 74° | 71° | 65–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 62° | 62° | 72° | 67° | 74° | 63° | 73° | 62–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 71° | 71° | 66° | 66° | 74° | 70° | 67° | 66–74° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 74° | 71° | 71° | 74° | 73° | 68° | 74° | 68–74° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.