Was the forecast right for New York on Sun Sep 13?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 73° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 79° against the NYC observations, with 0.96 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-29 | — | 74° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 74–77° |
| 14d · 2026-08-30 | 77° | 73° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 13d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 77° | 73° | — | 81° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 76° | 87° | — | 81° | — | — | 76–87° |
| 11d · 2026-09-02 | 81° | 91° | 74° | — | 86° | — | — | 74–91° |
| 10d · 2026-09-03 | 73° | 81° | 66° | — | 82° | — | — | 66–82° |
| 9d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 75° | 81° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–81° |
| 8d · 2026-09-05 | 82° | 77° | 85° | 88° | 83° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 84° | — | — | 83–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 85° | 79° | 84° | 82° | 84° | — | 79–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-08 | 79° | 79° | 80° | 75° | 76° | 84° | 83° | 75–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-09 | 79° | 71° | 81° | 75° | 80° | 79° | 79° | 71–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-10 | 78° | 75° | 80° | 79° | 84° | 80° | 81° | 75–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 76° | 78° | 72° | 84° | 79° | 86° | 72–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 77° | 82° | 84° | 83° | 80° | 80° | 77–84° |
| 0d · 2026-09-13 | 77° | 78° | 80° | 77° | 81° | 79° | 81° | 77–81° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.