Was the forecast right for New York on Sun Sep 20?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 64° to 74°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 69°. The day verified at 69° against the NYC observations, with 0.28 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 72° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 71° | 66° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 66–71° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 74° | 64° | 71° | — | 71° | — | — | 64–74° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 70° | 73° | 74° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–74° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 68° | 72° | 68° | — | 82° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 67° | 76° | 68° | — | 79° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 68° | 77° | 70° | — | 71° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 76° | 73° | 90° | 72° | 76° | — | — | 72–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 74° | 78° | 73° | 80° | 77° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 70° | 74° | 86° | 81° | 78° | 75° | — | 70–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 69° | 66° | 69° | 74° | 73° | 68° | 71° | 66–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 69° | 70° | 66° | 78° | 75° | 67° | 69° | 66–78° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 69° | 64° | 70° | 73° | 69° | 70° | 70° | 64–73° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 69° | 64° | 72° | 69° | 67° | 70° | 70° | 64–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 70° | 64° | 74° | 70° | 68° | 71° | 74° | 64–74° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 69° | 68° | 69° | 69° | 68° | 70° | 72° | 68–72° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.