Was the forecast right for New York on Tue Sep 15?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 60° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 72° against the NYC observations — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 82° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 82–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 67° | 60° | 92° | — | 80° | — | — | 60–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 92° | 68° | 94° | — | 98° | — | — | 68–98° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 80° | 88° | 76° | — | 84° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 86° | 72° | 77° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 76° | 82° | 71° | — | 100° | — | — | 71–100° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 70° | 81° | 93° | — | 84° | — | — | 70–93° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 75° | 76° | 77° | 68° | 86° | — | — | 68–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 73° | 68° | 76° | 67° | 80° | — | — | 67–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 71° | 71° | 83° | 76° | 88° | 80° | — | 71–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 70° | 74° | 69° | 69° | 78° | 68° | 74° | 68–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 71° | 70° | 72° | 70° | 75° | 69° | 75° | 69–75° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 71° | 70° | 71° | 71° | 76° | 68° | 72° | 68–76° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 72° | 71° | 70° | 71° | 76° | 71° | 73° | 70–76° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 71° | 71° | 70° | 75° | 76° | 72° | 72° | 70–76° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 71° | 70° | 71° | 74° | 76° | 71° | 72° | 70–76° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.