Was the forecast right for New York on Tue Aug 4?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
9 days out, 5 models put New York's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 71° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 84° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. GFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 83° | 83° | 83° | 71° | 88° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 83° | 84° | 85° | 82° | 84° | — | — | 82–85° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 81° | 78° | 83° | 87° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 83° | 84° | 82° | 81° | 85° | 85° | 85° | 81–85° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 84° | 86° | 80° | 80° | 82° | 78° | 78–86° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 83° | 80° | 77° | 85° | 79° | 86° | 77–86° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 81° | 82° | 80° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 80–84° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 82° | 82° | 80° | 81° | 86° | 86° | 80–86° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 83° | 81° | 83° | 85° | 79° | 84° | 85° | 79–85° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.