Was the forecast right for New York on Sun Sep 6?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 70° to 75°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 76° against the NYC observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 78° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 74–78° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 69° | 72° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 73° | 70° | 75° | — | 75° | — | — | 70–75° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 71° | 85° | — | 79° | — | — | 71–90° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 80° | 86° | 81° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–86° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 77° | 91° | 78° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 78° | 78° | 78° | — | 82° | — | — | 78–82° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 74° | 73° | 75° | 80° | 80° | — | — | 73–80° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 73° | 78° | 72° | 71° | 81° | — | — | 71–81° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 75° | 74° | 72° | 71° | 76° | 72° | — | 71–76° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 75° | 74° | 76° | 73° | 78° | 78° | 81° | 73–81° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 76° | 76° | 74° | 76° | 80° | 76° | 78° | 74–80° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 73° | 76° | 73° | 76° | 74° | 78° | 75° | 73–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 74° | 75° | 76° | 75° | 77° | 75° | 76° | 74–77° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 80° | 75° | 74° | 77° | 74–80° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 74° | 74° | 76° | 78° | 77° | 76° | 78° | 74–78° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.