Was the forecast right for New York on Sun Sep 6?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 73° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 75°. The day verified at 76° against the NYC observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 77° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–77° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 81° | 80° | 73° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 81° | 70° | 85° | — | 81° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 81° | 83° | 85° | — | 92° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 88° | 72° | 81° | — | 76° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 78° | 90° | 80° | — | 98° | — | — | 78–98° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 77° | 71° | 78° | 79° | 79° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 79° | 77° | 73° | 71° | 81° | — | — | 71–81° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 75° | 78° | 78° | 74° | 71° | — | — | 71–78° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 75° | 77° | 78° | 75° | 78° | 75° | 78° | 75–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 75° | 74° | 76° | 73° | 78° | 78° | 81° | 73–81° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 76° | 76° | 73° | 76° | 73° | 75° | 79° | 73–79° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 73° | 76° | 73° | 76° | 74° | 78° | 75° | 73–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 75° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 77° | 75° | 75–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 75° | 74° | 75° | 80° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 74–80° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.