Was the forecast right for New York on Sun Oct 25?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 49° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 64° against the NYC observations — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 56° | — | — | 53° | — | — | 53–56° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 66° | 57° | 60° | — | 49° | — | — | 49–66° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | — | 61° | 70° | — | 63° | — | — | 61–70° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | 72° | 59° | 61° | — | 62° | — | — | 59–72° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 56° | 74° | 53° | — | 69° | — | — | 53–74° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 63° | 64° | 58° | — | 56° | — | — | 56–64° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 56° | 68° | 61° | 58° | 70° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 65° | 60° | 58° | 62° | 61° | — | — | 58–65° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 65° | 60° | 64° | 61° | 62° | — | — | 60–65° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 64° | 65° | 60° | 63° | 64° | 64° | 60° | 60–65° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 64° | 65° | 61° | 64° | 66° | 64° | 60° | 60–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 64° | 65° | 62° | 63° | 66° | 65° | 61° | 61–66° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 64° | 64° | 62° | 64° | 67° | 65° | 61° | 61–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 65° | 66° | 64° | 64° | 67° | 66° | 61° | 61–67° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 65° | 65° | 64° | 66° | 68° | 66° | 60° | 60–68° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.