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Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Aug 7?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

12 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Fri Aug 7 high anywhere from 33° to 42°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 1° cool.

12 days out the models said 33–42; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
12d · 2026-07-26 33° 34° 39° — 42° — — 33–42°
11d · 2026-07-27 36° 39° 40° — 41° — — 36–41°
10d · 2026-07-28 34° 38° 40° — 41° — — 34–41°
9d · 2026-07-29 37° 37° 39° 37° 41° — — 37–41°
8d · 2026-07-30 36° 37° 40° 37° 41° — — 36–41°
7d · 2026-07-31 38° 38° 39° 36° 40° — — 36–40°
6d · 2026-08-01 30° 36° 39° 37° 40° 38° 38° 30–40°
5d · 2026-08-02 34° 35° 38° 37° 41° 38° 37° 34–41°
4d · 2026-08-03 38° 39° 40° 37° 40° 39° 38° 37–40°
3d · 2026-08-04 38° 39° 39° 37° 39° 39° 39° 37–39°
2d · 2026-08-05 37° 39° 39° 38° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
1d · 2026-08-06 37° 39° 39° 38° 38° 38° 38° 37–39°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.