The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Sep 14?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 31° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — clear.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°.

13 days out the models said 31–37; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.1°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-30 — 32° — — 38° — — 32–38°
14d · 2026-08-31 31° 34° — — 22° — — 22–34°
13d · 2026-09-01 35° 36° 31° — 37° — — 31–37°
12d · 2026-09-02 37° 37° 34° — 34° — — 34–37°
11d · 2026-09-03 36° 36° 33° — 40° — — 33–40°
10d · 2026-09-04 36° 29° 38° — 39° — — 29–39°
9d · 2026-09-05 37° 33° 37° — 38° — — 33–38°
8d · 2026-09-06 37° 36° 36° 37° 21° — — 21–37°
7d · 2026-09-07 37° 38° 37° 36° 39° — — 36–39°
6d · 2026-09-08 37° 37° 38° 35° 38° 38° — 35–38°
5d · 2026-09-09 36° 36° 39° 37° 39° 39° 38° 36–39°
4d · 2026-09-10 36° 36° 38° 37° 39° 37° 37° 36–39°
3d · 2026-09-11 37° 36° 38° 37° 39° 38° 38° 36–39°
2d · 2026-09-12 36° 36° 38° 37° 39° 38° 38° 36–39°
1d · 2026-09-13 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
0d · 2026-09-14 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 37° 38° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.