The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sun Sep 13?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 29° to 40°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — partly cloudy.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 1° cold.

13 days out the models said 29–40; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-29 — 37° — — 39° — — 37–39°
14d · 2026-08-30 32° 32° — — 37° — — 32–37°
13d · 2026-08-31 29° 38° 34° — 40° — — 29–40°
12d · 2026-09-01 39° 35° 34° — 35° — — 34–39°
11d · 2026-09-02 38° 37° 34° — 38° — — 34–38°
10d · 2026-09-03 38° 37° 32° — 39° — — 32–39°
9d · 2026-09-04 36° 27° 38° — 40° — — 27–40°
8d · 2026-09-05 38° 32° 39° 34° 39° — — 32–39°
7d · 2026-09-06 37° 36° 37° 38° 38° — — 36–38°
6d · 2026-09-07 37° 38° 38° 37° 39° 40° — 37–40°
5d · 2026-09-08 36° 37° 38° 38° 38° 40° 38° 36–40°
4d · 2026-09-09 35° 37° 38° 38° 38° 39° 37° 35–39°
3d · 2026-09-10 36° 36° 38° 37° 38° 38° 37° 36–38°
2d · 2026-09-11 37° 37° 39° 37° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
1d · 2026-09-12 36° 37° 38° 37° 39° 39° 37° 36–39°
0d · 2026-09-13 37° 37° 39° 37° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.