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Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Sun Sep 20?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

13 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 33° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the SAT observations — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 2° warm.

13 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 34. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-05 — 33° — — 37° — — 33–37°
14d · 2026-09-06 32° 26° — — 33° — — 26–33°
13d · 2026-09-07 37° 33° 34° — 36° — — 33–37°
12d · 2026-09-08 34° 30° 32° — 37° — — 30–37°
11d · 2026-09-09 33° 34° 36° — 38° — — 33–38°
10d · 2026-09-10 33° 30° 32° — 35° — — 30–35°
9d · 2026-09-11 35° 34° 36° — 28° — — 28–36°
8d · 2026-09-12 35° 31° 27° 36° 37° — — 27–37°
7d · 2026-09-13 35° 34° 35° 34° 36° — — 34–36°
6d · 2026-09-14 35° 34° 35° 35° 36° 36° — 34–36°
5d · 2026-09-15 35° 34° 35° 35° 37° 37° 35° 34–37°
4d · 2026-09-16 35° 34° 36° 34° 36° 35° 35° 34–36°
3d · 2026-09-17 34° 34° 36° 34° 36° 36° 34° 34–36°
2d · 2026-09-18 35° 35° 36° 34° 37° 36° 34° 34–37°
1d · 2026-09-19 34° 34° 36° 34° 36° 35° 34° 34–36°
0d · 2026-09-20 34° 34° 34° 34° 36° 34° 35° 34–36°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.