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Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Sat Sep 26?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 27° to 34°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 35° against the SAT observations — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 2° cool.

14 days out the models said 27–34; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-11 — 28° — — 36° — — 28–36°
14d · 2026-09-12 31° 27° 32° — 34° — — 27–34°
13d · 2026-09-13 33° 32° 33° — 35° — — 32–35°
12d · 2026-09-14 35° 33° 35° — 36° — — 33–36°
11d · 2026-09-15 34° 31° 36° — 35° — — 31–36°
10d · 2026-09-16 33° 34° 30° — 38° — — 30–38°
9d · 2026-09-17 31° 30° 33° 31° 35° — — 30–35°
8d · 2026-09-18 33° 32° 34° 31° 37° — — 31–37°
7d · 2026-09-19 33° 34° 34° 33° 37° — — 33–37°
6d · 2026-09-20 34° 34° 35° 33° 36° 34° 34° 33–36°
5d · 2026-09-21 35° 33° 35° 33° 36° 35° 34° 33–36°
4d · 2026-09-22 35° 33° 34° 33° 36° 34° 33° 33–36°
3d · 2026-09-23 33° 33° 34° 34° 35° 35° 34° 33–35°
2d · 2026-09-24 33° 33° 34° 33° 35° 34° 33° 33–35°
1d · 2026-09-25 34° 33° 34° 33° 34° 33° 33° 33–34°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.