The Spread

Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Tue Sep 15?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

13 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 27° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the SAT observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 3° cold.

13 days out the models said 27–37; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-31 — 29° — — 29° — — 29–29°
14d · 2026-09-01 35° 36° — — 35° — — 35–36°
13d · 2026-09-02 36° 37° 27° — 33° — — 27–37°
12d · 2026-09-03 36° 35° 33° — 38° — — 33–38°
11d · 2026-09-04 35° 31° 35° — 37° — — 31–37°
10d · 2026-09-05 35° 33° 35° — 37° — — 33–37°
9d · 2026-09-06 34° 35° 34° — 23° — — 23–35°
8d · 2026-09-07 37° 37° 36° 35° 35° — — 35–37°
7d · 2026-09-08 36° 35° 36° 34° 36° — — 34–36°
6d · 2026-09-09 37° 36° 35° 37° 38° 37° — 35–38°
5d · 2026-09-10 36° 36° 36° 35° 37° 37° 38° 35–38°
4d · 2026-09-11 36° 36° 37° 36° 38° 37° 38° 36–38°
3d · 2026-09-12 36° 36° 37° 36° 38° 38° 37° 36–38°
2d · 2026-09-13 36° 36° 38° 36° 38° 37° 38° 36–38°
1d · 2026-09-14 37° 36° 38° 35° 38° 37° 37° 35–38°
0d · 2026-09-15 37° 36° 38° 36° 38° 38° 37° 36–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.