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Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Sat Sep 12?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 29° to 36°; by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the SAT observations.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.

14 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this day: what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Forecast highs for Sat Sep 12 as each model's run approached it, recorded from the last archived model run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are omitted because they average the other models.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-28 — 36° — — 39° — — 36–39°
14d · 2026-08-29 36° 29° 29° — 31° — — 29–36°
13d · 2026-08-30 36° 28° 31° — 40° — — 28–40°
12d · 2026-08-31 34° 36° 34° — 40° — — 34–40°
11d · 2026-09-01 37° 36° 33° — 38° — — 33–38°
10d · 2026-09-02 37° 35° 37° — 38° — — 35–38°
9d · 2026-09-03 34° 36° 36° 37° 29° — — 29–37°
8d · 2026-09-04 32° 36° 37° 36° 32° — — 32–37°
7d · 2026-09-05 37° 32° 38° 35° 38° — — 32–38°
6d · 2026-09-06 38° 37° 36° 37° 38° 40° 36° 36–40°
5d · 2026-09-07 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 40° 37° 37–40°
4d · 2026-09-08 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 39° 36° 36–39°
3d · 2026-09-09 37° 36° 37° 36° 38° 38° 36° 36–38°
2d · 2026-09-10 37° 36° 38° 37° 38° 38° 37° 36–38°
1d · 2026-09-11 37° 36° 38° 37° 38° 38° 37° 36–38°
actual 38°

What one day can show

A score for one day isn't very meaningful; a useful ranking needs many days of data. See which model has been most accurate in San Antonio, or in every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time they were recorded by The Spread; nothing is reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.