The Spread

Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Sat Sep 12?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

13 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 32° to 35°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the SAT observations — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 1° cold.

13 days out the models said 32–35; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-28 — 35° — — 41° — — 35–41°
14d · 2026-08-29 37° 38° — — 35° — — 35–38°
13d · 2026-08-30 34° 32° 32° — 35° — — 32–35°
12d · 2026-08-31 37° 36° 30° — 39° — — 30–39°
11d · 2026-09-01 38° 34° 31° — 35° — — 31–38°
10d · 2026-09-02 37° 36° 31° — 34° — — 31–37°
9d · 2026-09-03 38° 35° 36° — 38° — — 35–38°
8d · 2026-09-04 34° 36° 36° 37° 29° — — 29–37°
7d · 2026-09-05 37° 29° 37° 35° 37° — — 29–37°
6d · 2026-09-06 37° 36° 36° 37° 38° 40° — 36–40°
5d · 2026-09-07 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 39° 37° 37–39°
4d · 2026-09-08 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 39° 36° 36–39°
3d · 2026-09-09 37° 36° 38° 37° 38° 38° 35° 35–38°
2d · 2026-09-10 37° 36° 37° 36° 38° 39° 35° 35–39°
1d · 2026-09-11 37° 36° 38° 37° 38° 39° 38° 36–39°
0d · 2026-09-12 36° 36° 37° 37° 38° 38° 37° 36–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.