Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Tue Oct 20?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Tue Oct 20 high anywhere from 76° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 83° against the SAT observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-05 | — | 80° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–80° |
| 14d · 2026-10-06 | 79° | 77° | 82° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 13d · 2026-10-07 | 77° | 76° | 80° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 12d · 2026-10-08 | 72° | 82° | 70° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–82° |
| 11d · 2026-10-09 | 82° | 76° | 83° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 10d · 2026-10-10 | 82° | 72° | 82° | — | 75° | — | — | 72–82° |
| 9d · 2026-10-11 | 79° | 74° | 81° | 86° | 73° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 8d · 2026-10-12 | — | 80° | 77° | 71° | 85° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 7d · 2026-10-13 | 78° | 79° | 82° | 83° | 83° | — | — | 78–83° |
| 6d · 2026-10-14 | 79° | 72° | 79° | 74° | 79° | 82° | 78° | 72–82° |
| 5d · 2026-10-15 | 80° | 71° | 81° | 76° | 80° | 82° | 78° | 71–82° |
| 4d · 2026-10-16 | 80° | 78° | 81° | 77° | 83° | 82° | 79° | 77–83° |
| 3d · 2026-10-17 | 80° | 78° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 79° | 78–82° |
| 2d · 2026-10-18 | 80° | 78° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 82° | 80° | 78–82° |
| 1d · 2026-10-19 | 80° | 80° | 80° | 81° | 82° | 83° | 80° | 80–83° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.