Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Fri Oct 9?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 77° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 90° against the SAT observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-24 | — | 72° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 72–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-25 | 77° | 77° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 77–81° |
| 13d · 2026-09-26 | 85° | 77° | 80° | — | 78° | — | — | 77–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-27 | 83° | 84° | 70° | — | 74° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-28 | 84° | 85° | 84° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-29 | 84° | 82° | 81° | — | 83° | — | — | 81–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-30 | 84° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 80° | — | — | 80–84° |
| 8d · 2026-10-01 | 85° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 84° | — | — | 83–86° |
| 7d · 2026-10-02 | 84° | 84° | 82° | 83° | 80° | — | — | 80–84° |
| 6d · 2026-10-03 | 82° | 86° | 83° | 75° | 78° | 85° | 84° | 75–86° |
| 5d · 2026-10-04 | 83° | 87° | 85° | 82° | 88° | 83° | 86° | 82–88° |
| 4d · 2026-10-05 | 86° | 87° | 85° | 86° | 88° | 87° | 87° | 85–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-06 | 86° | 87° | 87° | 90° | 88° | 89° | 88° | 86–90° |
| 2d · 2026-10-07 | 87° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 89° | 90° | 90° | 87–90° |
| 1d · 2026-10-08 | 87° | 88° | 88° | 89° | 90° | 90° | 90° | 87–90° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.