Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Tue Sep 29?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Tue Sep 29 high anywhere from 87° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 97° against the SAT observations — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 4.3°. UKMO ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-14 | — | 94° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 94–98° |
| 14d · 2026-09-15 | 94° | 87° | 96° | — | 96° | — | — | 87–96° |
| 13d · 2026-09-16 | 89° | 81° | 86° | — | 94° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-17 | 86° | 90° | 85° | — | 97° | — | — | 85–97° |
| 11d · 2026-09-18 | 88° | 88° | 97° | — | 89° | — | — | 88–97° |
| 10d · 2026-09-19 | 83° | 92° | 80° | — | 99° | — | — | 80–99° |
| 9d · 2026-09-20 | 95° | 91° | 96° | 78° | 96° | — | — | 78–96° |
| 8d · 2026-09-21 | 96° | 90° | 94° | 93° | 91° | — | — | 90–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-22 | 83° | 85° | 91° | 92° | 94° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-23 | 96° | 91° | 96° | 92° | 97° | 94° | 93° | 91–97° |
| 5d · 2026-09-24 | 93° | 92° | 97° | 88° | 95° | 98° | 93° | 88–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-25 | 94° | 92° | 95° | 92° | 97° | 94° | 94° | 92–97° |
| 3d · 2026-09-26 | 93° | 91° | 93° | 91° | 94° | 96° | 95° | 91–96° |
| 2d · 2026-09-27 | 93° | 92° | 93° | 91° | 95° | 94° | 93° | 91–95° |
| 1d · 2026-09-28 | 93° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 90–93° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.