Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sat Sep 19?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 76° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 82° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 73° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 73–96° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 84° | 76° | 91° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 87° | 86° | 100° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–100° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 83° | 87° | 79° | — | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 81° | 80° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 80° | 88° | 92° | — | 98° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 82° | 78° | 83° | — | 86° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 76° | 81° | 87° | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 79° | 81° | 81° | 88° | 90° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 79° | 78° | 80° | 85° | 82° | 85° | — | 78–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 78° | 75° | 86° | 80° | 82° | 86° | 80° | 75–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 78° | 75° | 84° | 81° | 84° | 86° | 80° | 75–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 78° | 75° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 86° | 80° | 75–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 78° | 74° | 85° | 83° | 85° | 85° | 80° | 74–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 74° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 74–84° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.