Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sat Oct 10?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sat Oct 10 high anywhere from 78° to 101°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 81° against the FHMC1 observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.1°. GEM ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-25 | — | 92° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 92–96° |
| 14d · 2026-09-26 | 86° | 78° | 82° | — | 101° | — | — | 78–101° |
| 13d · 2026-09-27 | 102° | 80° | 100° | — | 82° | — | — | 80–102° |
| 12d · 2026-09-28 | 99° | 88° | 101° | — | 104° | — | — | 88–104° |
| 11d · 2026-09-29 | 95° | 95° | 98° | — | 99° | — | — | 95–99° |
| 10d · 2026-09-30 | 76° | 71° | 80° | — | 90° | — | — | 71–90° |
| 9d · 2026-10-01 | 76° | 75° | 83° | 100° | 96° | — | — | 75–100° |
| 8d · 2026-10-02 | 73° | 76° | 78° | 102° | 88° | — | — | 73–102° |
| 7d · 2026-10-03 | 73° | 76° | 85° | 99° | 89° | — | — | 73–99° |
| 6d · 2026-10-04 | 76° | 75° | 86° | 87° | 96° | 87° | 73° | 73–96° |
| 5d · 2026-10-05 | 76° | 78° | 81° | 85° | 89° | 97° | 92° | 76–97° |
| 4d · 2026-10-06 | 78° | 75° | 80° | 81° | 87° | 81° | 87° | 75–87° |
| 3d · 2026-10-07 | 76° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 85° | 83° | 77° | 76–85° |
| 2d · 2026-10-08 | 76° | 78° | 82° | 79° | 82° | 86° | 73° | 73–86° |
| 1d · 2026-10-09 | 76° | 77° | 80° | 87° | 83° | 86° | 79° | 76–87° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.