Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Aug 3?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
8 days out, 5 models put Los Angeles's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 83° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 92° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIGFS ran 12° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-26 | 84° | 83° | 86° | 94° | 93° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 84° | 79° | 86° | 94° | 91° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 77° | 87° | 92° | 93° | 84° | 87° | 77–93° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 85° | 77° | 94° | 95° | 95° | 86° | 92° | 77–95° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 86° | 77° | 91° | 93° | 94° | 86° | 91° | 77–94° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 85° | 78° | 93° | 90° | 94° | 87° | 90° | 78–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 85° | 80° | 92° | 90° | 93° | 86° | 89° | 80–93° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 84° | 79° | 91° | 91° | 89° | 83° | 90° | 79–91° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.