Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Wed Aug 19?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Wed Aug 19 high anywhere from 72° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 97° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.4°. AIGFS ran 14° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-04 | — | 71° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 71–94° |
| 14d · 2026-08-05 | 77° | 72° | 86° | — | 89° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 13d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 80° | 86° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 12d · 2026-08-07 | 86° | 75° | 85° | — | 92° | — | — | 75–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-08 | 81° | 73° | 85° | — | 94° | — | — | 73–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-09 | 78° | 82° | 81° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 9d · 2026-08-10 | 88° | 82° | 96° | 87° | 89° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-11 | 89° | 82° | 85° | 89° | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 7d · 2026-08-12 | 91° | 82° | 90° | 90° | 91° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 6d · 2026-08-13 | 90° | 79° | 87° | 92° | 86° | 82° | 89° | 79–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-14 | 88° | 82° | 92° | 93° | 93° | 86° | 92° | 82–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-15 | 88° | 82° | 93° | 92° | 95° | 89° | 91° | 82–95° |
| 3d · 2026-08-16 | 88° | 79° | 92° | 93° | 94° | 88° | 90° | 79–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-17 | 88° | 80° | 92° | 91° | 95° | 87° | 90° | 80–95° |
| 1d · 2026-08-18 | 88° | 83° | 94° | 92° | 94° | 88° | 94° | 83–94° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.