Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Sep 20?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 78° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 83° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 78° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–78° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 78° | 80° | 94° | — | 84° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 82° | 83° | 79° | — | 93° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 83° | 80° | 84° | — | 81° | — | — | 80–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 83° | 91° | 88° | — | 94° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 77° | 81° | — | 85° | — | — | 77–85° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 78° | 75° | 81° | 81° | 86° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 75° | 78° | 83° | 88° | 93° | — | — | 75–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 77° | 75° | 78° | 78° | 80° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 77° | 74° | 78° | 79° | 84° | 86° | — | 74–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 75° | 72° | 81° | 76° | 83° | 84° | 76° | 72–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 74° | 72° | 84° | 78° | 84° | 82° | 77° | 72–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 74° | 72° | 84° | 79° | 84° | 81° | 77° | 72–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 75° | 73° | 81° | 81° | 84° | 81° | 78° | 73–84° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 74° | 73° | 83° | 82° | 82° | 83° | 78° | 73–83° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.