Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Sep 3?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
12 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 84° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 83° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 84° | 90° | 90° | — | 93° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 81° | 86° | 91° | — | 103° | — | — | 81–103° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 81° | 77° | 82° | — | 85° | — | — | 77–85° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 86° | 80° | 84° | 85° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 83° | 89° | 81° | 89° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 88° | 91° | 99° | 87° | — | — | 84–99° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 84° | 86° | 89° | 86° | 81° | 93° | 81° | 81–93° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 81° | 84° | 89° | 84° | 88° | 87° | 83° | 81–89° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 80° | 87° | 84° | 85° | 87° | 81° | 80–87° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 78° | 85° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 80° | 78–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 77° | 83° | 86° | 82° | 83° | 81° | 77–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 76° | 82° | 86° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 76–86° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.