Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Sep 3?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
11 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 84° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 83° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 86° | 84° | 93° | — | 91° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 84° | 78° | 86° | — | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 83° | 75° | 84° | — | 92° | — | — | 75–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 83° | 86° | 94° | 82° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 81° | 89° | 92° | 91° | 88° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 83° | 89° | 91° | 88° | 88° | — | 83–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 82° | 90° | 89° | 86° | 92° | 81° | 81–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 81° | 88° | 83° | 87° | 88° | 82° | 81–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 78° | 85° | 83° | 84° | 87° | 80° | 78–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 78° | 84° | 85° | 82° | 84° | 82° | 78–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 79° | 76° | 82° | 86° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 76–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-03 | 78° | 75° | 81° | 84° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 75–84° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.