Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Sep 6?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 77° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 76° against the FHMC1 observations — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 13° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 78° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 77° | 77° | 85° | — | 93° | — | — | 77–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 80° | 72° | 79° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 89° | 79° | 83° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 85° | 75° | 88° | — | 93° | — | — | 75–93° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 78° | 94° | — | 93° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 88° | — | — | 86–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 89° | 88° | 87° | 86° | 94° | — | — | 86–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 87° | 83° | 80° | 88° | 81° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 80° | 93° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 91° | 80–93° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 88° | 87° | 92° | 77° | 82° | 94° | 91° | 77–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 85° | 82° | 84° | 83° | 85° | 75° | 88° | 75–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 82° | 81° | 86° | 78° | 85° | 86° | 79° | 78–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 75° | 82° | 81° | 77° | 78° | 77° | 80° | 75–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 76° | 83° | 78° | 89° | 79° | 86° | 81° | 76–89° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.