Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Sep 6?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 73° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 76° against the FHMC1 observations — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 14° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 81° | 76° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 86° | 73° | 84° | — | 92° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 83° | 76° | 91° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 78° | 72° | 87° | — | 87° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 80° | 93° | — | 87° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 75° | 90° | — | 90° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 85° | 86° | 88° | 86° | 85° | — | — | 85–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 85° | 84° | 94° | 91° | 89° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 84° | 89° | 86° | 78° | 97° | — | 78–97° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 86° | 83° | 92° | 87° | 78° | 92° | 87° | 78–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 88° | 82° | 91° | 77° | 74° | 75° | 87° | 74–91° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 81° | 89° | 77° | 83° | 90° | 87° | 77–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 84° | 78° | 90° | 78° | 85° | 76° | 76–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 76° | 84° | 76° | 72° | 80° | 79° | 86° | 72–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 76° | 80° | 76° | 90° | 78° | 80° | 78° | 76–90° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.