Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Oct 12?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 76° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 67° against the FHMC1 observations, with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 72° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–72° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 88° | 78° | 97° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–97° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 86° | 90° | 86° | — | 93° | — | — | 86–93° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 76° | 64° | 72° | — | 84° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 74° | 84° | 77° | — | 86° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 68° | 77° | 69° | — | 78° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 68° | 80° | 65° | 72° | 77° | — | — | 65–80° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 68° | 69° | 71° | 77° | 77° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 72° | 69° | 69° | 72° | 71° | — | — | 69–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 71° | 73° | 65° | 72° | 73° | 68° | — | 65–73° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 70° | 69° | 69° | 72° | 65° | 68° | 73° | 65–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 68° | 64° | 66° | 66° | 65° | 63° | 64° | 63–68° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 66° | 64° | 67° | 65° | 67° | 65° | 65° | 64–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 67° | 65° | 66° | 63° | 65° | 68° | 66° | 63–68° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 66° | 66° | 66° | 69° | 68° | 64° | 64° | 64–69° |
| actual | 67° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.