Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Tue Sep 15?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 73° to 86°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 82° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 81° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 80–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 77° | 72° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 77° | 83° | 73° | — | 86° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 93° | 85° | 80° | — | 84° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 81° | 77° | — | 90° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 72° | 87° | — | 82° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 84° | 72° | 80° | — | 88° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 78° | 82° | 94° | 88° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 80° | 81° | 94° | 84° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 79° | 75° | 80° | 82° | 84° | 81° | — | 75–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 79° | 74° | 84° | 88° | 83° | 86° | 83° | 74–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 78° | 74° | 85° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 78° | 74–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 74° | 83° | 82° | 85° | 85° | 81° | 74–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 78° | 74° | 83° | 84° | 82° | 85° | 81° | 74–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 76° | 74° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 84° | 81° | 74–84° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 76° | 74° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 84° | 80° | 74–84° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.