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Which weather model is most accurate in Detroit?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Detroit at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the DTW observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (4.62°F).

The largest standing bias belongs to GEM (Canada), which has run warm by about 2.75°F at 1-day lead over this window.

Detroit's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.4° (-0.7°) 2.1° (-0.9°) 4.6° (-2.3°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.7° (-0.9°) 2.2° (-1.1°) 5.7° (-0.7°) 29
DWD ICON 1.8° (-0.6°) 2.4° (-0.8°) — 29
NOAA GFS 2.1° (+1.3°) 2.6° (+0.9°) 5.9° (-0.2°) 29
ECMWF IFS 2.5° (-1.2°) 3.1° (-1.6°) 6.1° (-2.6°) 29
UKMO (UK) 2.5° (-0.7°) 3.4° (-1.0°) — 29
GEM (Canada) 3.2° (+2.8°) 3.4° (-0.8°) 5.0° (-0.1°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Detroit point is the Detroit Metro station (DTW), 16 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Detroit Metro (DTW) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 50–64; it hit 69. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 56–73; it hit 64. ECMWF led (off 1.0°F); UKMO ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 48–71; it hit 67. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 59–71; it hit 87. GEM led (off 2.4°F); UKMO ran 7°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 58–76; it hit 80. GFS led (off 1.1°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 54–58; it hit 63. AIGFS led (off 0.7°F); ECMWF ran 5°F warm.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 55–74; it hit 71. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 63–73; it hit 68. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 54–70; it hit 70. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 65–73; it hit 78. GEM led (off 1.0°F); UKMO ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 61–69; it hit 69. GEM led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 58–73; it hit 64. GFS led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 64–75; it hit 75. GFS led (off 2.4°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 63–68; it hit 65. GFS led (off 0.0°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 70–76; it hit 67. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 59–77; it hit 79. AIGFS led (off 1.5°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 65–81; it hit 71. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 65–86; it hit 76. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 64–79; it hit 76. AIFS led (off 0.7°F); UKMO ran 2°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 54–74; it hit 76. GFS led (off 0.4°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 62–77; it hit 73. ICON led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 62–74; it hit 68. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 57–82; it hit 69. AIGFS led (off 0.9°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 64–88; it hit 65. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 66–71; it hit 64. AIFS led (off 1.1°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 68–77; it hit 61. AIGFS led (off 0.4°F); UKMO ran 6°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 56–68; it hit 63. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 12°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 57–78; it hit 65. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 65–72; it hit 75. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 68–75; it hit 70. AIFS led (off 1.3°F); GFS ran 9°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 69–86; it hit 74. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 72–90; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 0.4°F); ICON ran 7°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 72–94; it hit 71. ICON led (off 0.5°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 77–88; it hit 81. GFS led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 70–82; it hit 83. GFS led (off 0.8°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 73–94; it hit 76. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 7°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 76–89; it hit 82. GEM led (off 1.6°F); ICON ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 75–79; it hit 78. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 74–88; it hit 82. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 7 13 days out the models said 72–92; it hit 79. GFS led (off 0.8°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 6 12 days out the models said 78–91; it hit 79. GFS led (off 0.8°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 11 days out the models said 83–92; it hit 79. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 10 days out the models said 83–96; it hit 77. AIFS led (off 1.2°F); UKMO ran 8°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 9 days out the models said 80–93; it hit 88. ICON led (off 1.8°F); GFS ran 8°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 8 days out the models said 79–94; it hit 96. ICON led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 7 days out the models said 82–95; it hit 90. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 8°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 6 days out the models said 80–95; it hit 86. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 30 5 days out the models said 83–91; it hit 76. ICON led (off 0.2°F); ECMWF ran 10°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 4 days out the models said 77–86; it hit 83. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 3 days out the models said 74–83; it hit 81. GFS led (off 1.0°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.

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