Was the forecast right for Detroit on Fri Sep 4?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
10 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 76° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 77° against the DTW observations, with 0.87 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. UKMO ran 8° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 83° | 76° | 80° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 77° | 88° | 81° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 91° | 82° | 91° | 94° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 78° | 78° | 83° | 80° | 91° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 78° | 81° | 86° | 83° | 86° | 98° | — | 78–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 77° | 83° | 89° | 82° | 92° | 95° | 77–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 79° | 81° | 85° | 85° | 80° | 82° | 79–85° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 81° | 84° | 78° | 83° | 79° | 80° | 78–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 79° | 80° | 83° | 80° | 89° | 82° | 81° | 79–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 80° | 84° | 79° | 78° | 82° | 84° | 78–84° |
| 0d · 2026-09-04 | 78° | 81° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 83° | 85° | 78–85° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.