Was the forecast right for Detroit on Fri Sep 4?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
10 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 28° to 36°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 28°. The day verified at 25° against the DTW observations, with 22.1 mm of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. UKMO ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 28° | 32° | 31° | — | 36° | — | — | 28–36° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 28° | 27° | 30° | 32° | 23° | — | — | 23–32° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 26° | 26° | 25° | 28° | 37° | — | — | 25–37° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 26° | 26° | 26° | 27° | 33° | — | — | 26–33° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 27° | 26° | 29° | 24° | 29° | 29° | 29° | 24–29° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 27° | 27° | 29° | 25° | 26° | 34° | 35° | 25–35° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 27° | 27° | 28° | 26° | 29° | 29° | 28° | 26–29° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 25° | 27° | 28° | 26° | 27° | 26° | 28° | 25–28° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 26° | 27° | 29° | 25° | 30° | 28° | 27° | 25–30° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 26° | 27° | 28° | 28° | 28° | 28° | 30° | 26–30° |
| actual | 25° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.