Was the forecast right for Detroit on Mon Sep 21?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 68° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 61° against the DTW observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. UKMO ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 60° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 60–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 68° | 77° | 73° | — | 77° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 69° | 67° | 65° | — | 70° | — | — | 65–70° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 86° | 68° | 60° | — | 73° | — | — | 60–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 63° | 59° | 62° | — | 67° | — | — | 59–67° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 64° | 66° | 75° | — | 78° | — | — | 64–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 65° | 65° | 70° | 65° | 73° | — | — | 65–73° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 69° | 68° | 81° | 80° | 74° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 62° | 66° | 66° | 71° | 67° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 64° | 66° | 66° | 60° | 67° | 62° | 66° | 60–67° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 60° | 60° | 63° | 62° | 64° | 70° | 68° | 60–70° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 60° | 59° | 62° | 63° | 64° | 63° | 69° | 59–69° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 61° | 61° | 61° | 65° | 69° | 64° | 67° | 61–69° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 62° | 63° | 64° | 66° | 64° | 62° | 67° | 62–67° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 62° | 61° | 64° | 64° | 65° | 62° | 67° | 61–67° |
| actual | 61° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.