Was the forecast right for Detroit on Thu Oct 1?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 59° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 79° against the DTW observations, with 0.2 in of precipitation — showers.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.5°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 67° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 67–67° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 73° | 77° | 65° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 72° | 73° | 63° | — | 67° | — | — | 63–73° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 58° | 63° | 70° | — | 72° | — | — | 58–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 59° | 74° | 69° | — | 75° | — | — | 59–75° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 67° | 70° | 78° | — | 69° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 74° | 67° | 78° | 72° | 84° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 70° | 72° | 73° | 67° | 68° | — | — | 67–73° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 79° | 78° | 76° | 73° | 81° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 74° | 74° | 69° | 75° | 73° | 80° | 76° | 69–80° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 77° | 78° | 70° | 79° | 68° | 71° | 72° | 68–79° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 82° | 84° | 72° | 78° | 87° | 83° | 72° | 72–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 80° | 81° | 76° | 78° | 79° | 70° | 72° | 70–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 79° | 74° | 68° | 68–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 77° | 78° | 75° | 80° | 77° | 76° | 76° | 75–80° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.