Was the forecast right for Detroit on Thu Oct 15?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 56° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 64° against the DTW observations, with 0.15 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.0°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 54° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 54–70° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 56° | 62° | 69° | — | 73° | — | — | 56–73° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 54° | 56° | 75° | — | 67° | — | — | 54–75° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 70° | 58° | 74° | — | 67° | — | — | 58–74° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 67° | 48° | 78° | — | 60° | — | — | 48–78° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 62° | 61° | 65° | — | 68° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 59° | 61° | 55° | 56° | 75° | — | — | 55–75° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 56° | 59° | 54° | 60° | 80° | — | — | 54–80° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 58° | 79° | 68° | 70° | 66° | — | — | 58–79° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 59° | 67° | 60° | 64° | 61° | 61° | 60° | 59–67° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 58° | 59° | 60° | 63° | 62° | 65° | 64° | 58–65° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 59° | 61° | 60° | 61° | 58° | 62° | 61° | 58–62° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 60° | 60° | 62° | 65° | 62° | 60° | 60–65° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 58° | 60° | 61° | 64° | 66° | 61° | 58° | 58–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 62° | 63° | 63° | 68° | 66° | 60° | 58° | 58–68° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.