Was the forecast right for Detroit on Sat Sep 12?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 66° to 76°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 83° against the DTW observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 76° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 75° | 79° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 76° | 72° | 68° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 77° | 73° | 64° | — | 87° | — | — | 64–87° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 79° | 80° | 87° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 90° | 76° | — | 81° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 69° | 91° | 67° | — | 79° | — | — | 67–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 69° | 85° | 75° | 75° | 75° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 70° | 80° | 86° | 79° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 83° | 82° | 81° | 80° | 87° | 80° | — | 80–87° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 81° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 85° | 81° | 79° | 79–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 81° | 82° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 81° | 82° | 81–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 80° | 81° | 81° | 82° | 87° | 82° | 83° | 80–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 81° | 81° | 83° | 78° | 85° | 83° | 84° | 78–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 82° | 81° | 87° | 85° | 83° | 85° | 80–87° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 79° | 82° | 83° | 86° | 83° | 79° | 82° | 79–86° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.