Was the forecast right for Detroit on Wed Sep 2?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
8 days out, 5 models put Detroit's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 79° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 96° against the DTW observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 79° | 79° | 82° | 94° | 91° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 91° | 86° | 90° | 87° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 82° | 85° | 93° | 90° | 84° | 91° | 82–93° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 88° | 90° | 94° | 94° | 98° | 96° | 93° | 88–98° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 88° | 92° | 97° | 98° | 100° | 98° | 94° | 88–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 90° | 89° | 92° | 94° | 99° | 96° | 94° | 89–99° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 89° | 92° | 88° | 93° | 99° | 92° | 94° | 88–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 89° | 92° | 89° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 94° | 89–97° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.