Was the forecast right for Detroit on Wed Sep 2?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
8 days out, 5 models put Detroit's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 76° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 96° against the DTW observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 9° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 83° | 76° | 80° | 91° | 82° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 77° | 84° | 89° | 78° | 97° | — | — | 77–97° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 83° | 83° | 88° | 94° | 87° | — | 82–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 93° | 97° | 92° | 102° | 90° | 85° | 85–102° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 87° | 91° | 99° | 97° | 100° | 97° | 94° | 87–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 91° | 91° | 94° | 94° | 99° | 96° | 93° | 91–99° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 89° | 91° | 92° | 94° | 99° | 95° | 94° | 89–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 89° | 92° | 91° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 94° | 89–97° |
| 0d · 2026-09-02 | 88° | 92° | 87° | 95° | 96° | 91° | 94° | 87–96° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.