Was the forecast right for Detroit on Mon Oct 5?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 58° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 64° against the DTW observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 68° | — | — | 60° | — | — | 60–68° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 69° | 58° | 63° | — | 73° | — | — | 58–73° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 70° | 51° | 65° | — | 67° | — | — | 51–70° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 60° | 64° | 60° | — | 55° | — | — | 55–64° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 62° | 77° | 62° | — | 71° | — | — | 62–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 69° | 76° | 57° | — | 71° | — | — | 57–76° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 65° | 58° | 70° | 65° | 58° | — | — | 58–70° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 57° | 59° | 64° | 63° | 73° | — | — | 57–73° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 57° | 58° | 58° | 61° | 62° | — | — | 57–62° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 60° | 57° | 58° | 63° | 58° | 58° | 56° | 56–63° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 62° | 60° | 63° | 58° | 61° | 61° | 61° | 58–63° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 60° | 62° | 60° | 61° | 62° | 61° | 62° | 60–62° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 63° | 62° | 62° | 61° | 64° | 60° | 62° | 60–64° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 63° | 64° | 61° | 61° | 64° | 61° | 60° | 60–64° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 62° | 63° | 61° | 66° | 63° | 63° | 63° | 61–66° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.