Was the forecast right for Detroit on Tue Sep 8?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 74° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 82° against the DTW observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 74° | 75° | 75° | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 75° | 84° | 86° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 81° | 78° | 93° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–93° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 78° | 78° | 94° | — | 90° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 72° | 78° | 84° | — | 82° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 72° | 86° | 78° | 75° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 81° | 68° | 86° | 69° | — | — | 68–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 79° | 85° | 84° | 80° | 83° | — | — | 79–85° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 79° | 84° | 79° | 83° | 83° | 88° | 76° | 76–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 78° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 75° | 87° | 82° | 75–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 81° | 83° | 84° | 72° | 72–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 80° | 79° | 79° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 83° | 79–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 80° | 79° | 80° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 83° | 79–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 79° | 81° | 87° | 80° | 81° | 82° | 79–87° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.