Was the forecast right for Detroit on Sun Oct 4?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 64° to 75°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 75° against the DTW observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.4°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 63° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 63–69° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 64° | 75° | 71° | — | 72° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 65° | 61° | 69° | — | 74° | — | — | 61–74° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 72° | 62° | 71° | — | 77° | — | — | 62–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 66° | 62° | 65° | — | 68° | — | — | 62–68° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 64° | 70° | 61° | — | 70° | — | — | 61–70° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 65° | 65° | 68° | 71° | 84° | — | — | 65–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 61° | 69° | 64° | 65° | 70° | — | — | 61–70° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 66° | 61° | 66° | 67° | 65° | — | — | 61–67° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 67° | 70° | 68° | 70° | 67° | 67° | 62° | 62–70° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 71° | 72° | 70° | 70° | 68° | 65° | 64° | 64–72° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 67° | 72° | 66° | 66° | 72° | 69° | 72° | 66–72° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 70° | 72° | 69° | 69° | 72° | 69° | 70° | 69–72° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 70° | 72° | 68° | 68° | 72° | 70° | 70° | 68–72° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 72° | 72° | 69° | 72° | 73° | 70° | 70° | 69–73° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.