Was the forecast right for Detroit on Sat Sep 5?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
11 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 83° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 79° against the DTW observations, with 0.07 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 83° | 89° | — | 92° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 90° | 85° | 83° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 79° | 83° | 78° | 78° | 107° | — | — | 78–107° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 77° | 81° | 78° | 88° | 81° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 76° | 80° | 82° | 84° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 77° | 77° | 80° | 81° | 83° | 91° | 88° | 77–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 78° | 79° | 80° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 76° | 76–81° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 79° | 77° | 73° | 82° | 79° | 80° | 73–82° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 79° | 79° | 77° | 76° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 76–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 76° | 78° | 79° | 77° | 78° | 75° | 79° | 75–79° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 76° | 79° | 76° | 81° | 80° | 78° | 80° | 76–81° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.