Was the forecast right for Detroit on Thu Sep 17?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 68° to 75°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 70° against the DTW observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. GFS ran 10° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-02 | — | 68° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-03 | 68° | 77° | — | — | 64° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-04 | 70° | 69° | 68° | — | 75° | — | — | 68–75° |
| 12d · 2026-09-05 | 81° | 67° | 81° | — | 68° | — | — | 67–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-06 | 89° | 76° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-07 | 65° | 65° | 73° | — | 71° | — | — | 65–73° |
| 9d · 2026-09-08 | 78° | 91° | 74° | — | 83° | — | — | 74–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-09 | 78° | 90° | 75° | 90° | 71° | — | — | 71–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 65° | 78° | 69° | 71° | — | — | 65–80° |
| 6d · 2026-09-11 | 75° | 70° | 71° | 75° | 79° | 72° | — | 70–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-12 | 73° | 75° | 89° | 79° | 79° | 77° | 89° | 73–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-13 | 70° | 65° | 73° | 75° | 77° | 72° | 76° | 65–77° |
| 3d · 2026-09-14 | 71° | 72° | 78° | 78° | 85° | 72° | 79° | 71–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-15 | 71° | 70° | 75° | 73° | 81° | 74° | 78° | 70–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-16 | 72° | 72° | 76° | 80° | 80° | 73° | 70° | 70–80° |
| 0d · 2026-09-17 | 71° | 73° | 74° | 75° | 80° | 74° | 72° | 71–80° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.