Was the forecast right for Detroit on Wed Sep 9?
Detroit, Michigan · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DTW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Detroit's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 75° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 78° against the DTW observations, with 0.2 in of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Detroit scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 79° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 79–79° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 79° | 75° | 76° | — | 76° | — | — | 75–79° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 79° | 88° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 80° | 83° | 98° | — | 96° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 73° | 81° | 76° | — | 92° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 78° | 85° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 88° | 87° | 74° | 89° | 86° | — | — | 74–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 82° | 81° | 92° | 87° | 76° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 80° | 94° | 80° | 86° | 96° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 84° | 81° | 86° | 83° | 87° | 89° | 79–89° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 85° | 88° | 88° | 82° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 82–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 81° | 83° | 83° | 82° | 78° | 82° | 83° | 78–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 84° | 79° | 87° | 82° | 74° | 76° | 85° | 74–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 85° | 88° | 84° | 86° | 82° | 80° | 80–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 78° | 82° | 82° | 84° | 77° | 82° | 80° | 77–84° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Detroit — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DTW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.